US may skirt 'fiscal cliff' but faces higher taxes

A last-ditch tax deal in the Senate might let the U.S. economy escape the worst of the so-called fiscal cliff and avoid going back into recession. But even if the House goes along, the tax increases likely coming in 2013 will dent economic growth anyway.
In the early hours of the new year, the Senate voted to end a long stalemate and raise taxes on upper-income households, extend long-term unemployment benefits and postpone decisions over government spending cuts, officials said. But any deal needs approval from the House.
About $536 billion in 2013 tax increases were scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, along with $109 billion in cuts from military and domestic-spending programs, if Democrats and Republicans could not reach agreement.
Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said he expects budget policy, including the higher taxes in the Senate plan, to shave 0.8 percentage points off economic growth in 2013. The economy doesn't have much growth to give. Vitner predicts it will grow just 1.5 percent in 2013, down from 2.2 percent in 2012.
The biggest hit to the economy is expected to come from the end of a two-year Social Security tax cut. The so-called payroll tax is scheduled to bounce back up to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent in 2011 and 2012, amounting to a $1,000 tax increase for someone earning $50,000 a year.
"Even with this deal, fiscal policy will still be a net drag on economic growth," Vitner said. "The expiration of the payroll tax holiday will reduce after-tax income for all workers and hit lower to middle income families the hardest."
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, calculates that the higher payroll tax will reduce economic growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2013. The other possible tax increases — including higher taxes on household incomes above $450,000 a year — will slice just 0.15 percentage points off annual growth, Zandi says.

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Twitter and Nielsen pair up to publish new "social TV" ratings

- Nielsen Holdings NV, the television viewership measurement company, said on Monday it will partner with Twitter to publish a new set of ratings that measure chatter on Twitter about TV programming.
The new measurement, dubbed the "Nielsen Twitter TV Rating," seeks to tap into the stream of viewer commentary and armchair musings generated on "second screens" - the smartphones and tablets perched on Twitter users' laps while they watch, say, Monday Night Football or the latest episode of "Homeland" on their TVs.
The new ratings, to be launched next fall, arrive at a moment when media and advertising industry executives say they are observing a shift in TV viewing habits that include the rise of "second screen" use.
But significant questions remain for advertisers over how best to interpret the data and whether a Twitter ratings system is meaningful at all.
In September, Nielsen ratings showed that TV viewership for Viacom Inc's MTV Video Music Awards, which coincided with the Democratic National Convention, plummeted by more than 50 percent from a year ago. Yet social media chatter tripled, according to the research firm Trendrr.
Brad Adgate, an analyst at Horizon Media, said advertisers will view the Twitter ratings as a useful layer of information about a show's popularity, but it is "not going to be close to the currency" of existing ratings metrics.
"It lets producers and creative directors know if the storyline is working, like a huge focus group," Adgate said. "But I don't think you can translate comments to ratings for a show. Right now I think the bark right now is bigger than its bite."
The new ratings will measure the number of people discussing a show on Twitter, as well as those who are exposed to the chatter, to provide the "precise size of the audience and effect of social TV to TV programming," Nielsen said.
"As the experience of TV viewing continues to evolve, our TV partners have consistently asked for one common benchmark from which to measure the engagement of their programming," Chloe Sladden, Twitter's vice president of media, said in a post on the company blog on Monday. "This new metric is intended to answer that request, and to act as a complement and companion to the Nielsen TV rating."
Mark Burnett, executive producer of NBC's hit "The Voice," argued that advertisers should value programs that can attract a high level of social media engagement from viewers. Deeply embedded social media elements, such as live Twitter polls, were critical in driving "The Voice" to the top of the Tuesday night ratings among viewers between 18 to 49, Burnett said.
"If you're an advertiser, wouldn't you want to know whether people are watching this show passively or if they're actively engaged in the viewing experience?" Burnett said. "Five years from now this will make traditional television ratings seem archaic."
For Twitter, the partnership with a recognized measurement company like Nielsen emphatically punctuates a year-long effort by its media division to bring second-screen usage into the mainstream.
Twitter's convergence with television has been on display during sporting and major news events, which have provided some of the biggest viewership moments for both broadcasters and the social media company.
During the Summer Olympics in London, Twitter set up a page for the event that displayed photos from inside an event venue or athletes' tweets to complement what was being broadcast on NBC. Advertisers like Procter & Gamble Co, for instance, which advertised heavily during the Games, tried to bridge the two mediums by airing an ad on TV, then sending out a tweet soliciting viewer feedback about the ad.
As news organizations tallied votes on election night in the United States on November 6, worldwide Twitter chatter hit a peak of more than 327,000 per minute, the company said this month.

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Florida man sentenced to 10 years in "hackerazzi" case

A Florida man who pleaded guilty to hacking into the email accounts of celebrities to gain access to nude photos and private information was sentenced to 10 years in prison by a federal judge in Los Angeles on Monday.
Former office clerk Christopher Chaney, 36, said before the trial that he hacked into the accounts of film star Scarlett Johansson and other celebrities because he was addicted to spying on their personal lives.
Prosecutors said Chaney illegally gained access to email accounts of more than 50 people in the entertainment industry, including Johansson, actress Mila Kunis, and singers Christina Aguilera and Renee Olstead from November 2010 to October 2011.
Chaney, who was initially charged with 28 counts related to hacking, struck a plea deal with prosecutors in March to nine felony counts, including wiretapping and unauthorized access to protected computers.
"I don't know what else to say except I'm sorry," Chaney said during his sentencing. "This will never happen again."
Chaney was ordered to pay $66,179 in restitution to victims.
Prosecutors recommended a 71-month prison for Chaney, who faced a maximum sentence of 60 years.
TEARFUL JOHANSSON
Prosecutors said Chaney leaked some of the private photos to two celebrity gossip websites and a hacker.
Johansson said the photos, which show her topless, were taken for her then-husband, actor Ryan Reynolds.
In a video statement shown in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, a tearful Johansson said she was "truly humiliated and embarrassed" when the photos appeared online, asking Judge S. James Otero to come down hard on Chaney.
Prosecutors said Chaney also stalked two unnamed Florida women online, one since 1999 when she was 13 years old.
Chaney, a native of Jacksonville, Florida, was arrested in October 2011 after an 11-month FBI investigation dubbed "Operation Hackerazzi" and he continued hacking after investigators initially seized his personal computers.
Shortly after his arrest, Chaney told a Florida television station that his hacking of celebrity email accounts started as curiosity and later he became "addicted."
"I was almost relieved months ago when they came in and took my computer ... because I didn't know how to stop," he said.

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Massachusetts fines Morgan Stanley over Facebook IPO

 Morgan Stanley , the lead underwriter for Facebook Inc's initial public offering, will pay a $5 million fine to Massachusetts for violating securities laws governing how investment research can be distributed.
Massachusetts' top securities regulator, William Galvin, charged on Monday that a top Morgan Stanley banker had improperly coached Facebook on how to disclose sensitive financial information selectively, perpetuating what he calls "an unlevel playing field" between Wall Street and Main Street.
Morgan Stanley has faced criticism since Facebook went public in May for revealing revised earnings and revenue forecasts to select clients before the media company's $16 billion initial public offering.
This is the first time a case stemming from Morgan Stanley's handling of the Facebook offering has been settled.
Facebook had privately told Wall Street research analysts about softer forecasts because of less robust mobile revenues. A top Morgan Stanley banker coached Facebook executives on how to get the message out, Galvin said.
A Morgan Stanley spokeswoman said on Monday the company is "pleased to have reached a settlement" and that it is "committed to robust compliance with both the letter and the spirit of all applicable regulations and laws." The company neither admitted nor denied any wrongdoing.
Galvin, who has been aggressive in policing how research is distributed on Wall Street ever since investment banks reached a global settlement in 2003, said the bank violated that settlement. He fined Citigroup $2 million over similar charges in late October.
"The conduct at Morgan Stanley was more egregious," he said in an interview explaining the amount of the fine. "With it we will get their attention and begin to take steps in restoring some confidence for retail investors to invest."
Galvin also said that his months-long investigation into the Facebook IPO is far from over and that he continues to review the other banks involved. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan also acted as underwriters. The underwriting fee for all underwriters was reported to be $176 million at the time, or 1.1 percent of the proceeds.
As lead underwriter, Morgan Stanley took in $68 million in fees from the IPO, according to a Thomson Reuters estimate.
Massachusetts did not name the Morgan Stanley banker in its documents but personal information detailed in the matter suggest it is Michael Grimes, a top technology banker who was instrumental in the Facebook IPO.
The report says the unnamed banker joined Morgan Stanley in 1995 and became a managing director in 1998, dates that correlate with Grimes' career at the firm. It also says the banker works in Morgan Stanley's Menlo Park, California, office, where Grimes also works.
Grimes did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and was not accused of any wrongdoing by name.
The state said the banker helped a Facebook executive release new information and then guided the executive on how to speak with Wall Street analysts about it. The banker, Galvin said, rehearsed with Facebook's Treasurer and wrote the bulk of the script Facebook's Treasurer used when calling the research analysts.
A number of Wall Street analysts cut their growth estimates for Facebook in the days before the IPO after the company filed an amended prospectus.
Facebook's treasurer then quickly called a number for Wall Street analysts providing even more information.
The banker "was not allowed to call research analysts himself, so he did everything he could to ensure research analysts received new revenue numbers which they then provided to institutional investors," Galvin said.
Galvin's consent order also says that the banker spoke with company lawyers and then to Facebook's chief financial officer about how to prove an update "without creating the appearance of not providing the underlying trend information to all investors."
The banker and all others involved with the matter at Morgan Stanley are still employed by the company, a person familiar with the matter said.
Retail investors were not given any similar information, Galvin said, saying this case illustrates how institutional investors often have an edge over retail investors.

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ARM security improvement to speed mobile e-commerce

British chip designer ARM Holdings and its partners Gemalto and Giesecke & Devrient have launched a new security standard for smartphones that can speed up e-commerce transactions.
Trustonic, a joint venture between the companies formed in April, said the security standard could be built into every level of a device, from the chip through the operating system to applications.
Ben Cade, Trustonic's chief executive, said it would eliminate the need for third-party devices, like bank card readers and secure ID tags, and enable content to be shared easily between devices.
He said the technology could reduce the time needed for an e-commerce transaction on a smartphone to seven seconds from the two and a half minutes typical today.
"It will enable us to trust our smart connected devices to protect us as they deliver essential services and innovative user experiences," he said.
Security is becoming increasingly important for smartphone users as more operations move from PCs to mobile devices.
Trustonic has signed up partners ranging from chipmakers NVIDIA and Samsung Electronics to payments company Mastercard and content provider 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, Cade said.

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Online shopping to breathe new life into run-down sheds

Owners of run-down warehouses on the edge of European cities could be sitting on goldmines because online shopping will force firms to seek distribution sites closer to customers who think speedy delivery is the norm.
In an increasingly fierce market where the likes of Amazon and Tesco pledge next-day or same-day delivery in specific time slots, warehouse rents could rise 40 percent over the next decade, property consultant CBRE said.
"Your industrial estate (near heavily populated areas) is the high street of the future," said Jonathan Holland, senior manager of Legal & General Property's industrial fund, which has 770 million pounds ($1.25 billion) under management.
"We are very much looking at owning warehouses around major conurbations."
Some 43 percent of European Union citizens shop online, the European Commission said in February, up from 26 percent six years ago. They were expected to fuel a 12-15 percent growth in online sales across the region over the next five years, Forrester Research predicted.
Meanwhile, falling sales in austerity-hit Britain have forced retail property values down 28 percent since end-2007, data from Investment Property Databank showed. Values in euro zone countries fell 5 percent over the same period, CBRE said.
The yield, or annual rent as a percentage of the property value, on an industrial warehouse in a good location in Europe was 7.8 percent at the end of September compared with 5.8 percent for offices and 5.2 percent for shops, CBRE said.
Industrial yields depend more on lease length and the financial strength of the tenant than location, compared with offices or shops, and would "edge downwards" where demand from retailers was strong, CBRE said.
Retailers currently favor large sites in locations away from big population centers but with good transport links.
Amazon's huge warehouses include sites in Dunfermline, Scotland and Rheinberg, Germany while Marks & Spencer will open a warehouse the size of 11 soccer fields in Castle Donington, Leicestershire, next year.
That is changing, said Amaury Gariel, managing director of CBRE's European industrial logistics team.
Places such as Croydon, 16 kilometers south of central London, strewn with empty office blocks and suffering high unemployment, and Créteil, a scruffy suburb 19 km southeast of Paris, are examples of areas that could be targeted as they are close to major highways and large local workforces, Gariel said.
Warehouse rents at such sites could rise 20-40 percent over the next decade, he said, citing the greatest demand in areas near the biggest European cities such as Amsterdam, London and Paris for sites that have typically been used by mail delivery firms and food distributors.
A tendency by governments to prioritize such areas for homes would squeeze supply and push prices higher, he said.
Retailers and property investors are at "a tipping point" in waking up to the changing real estate map for distribution points in Europe, Holland said.
Amazon is on the hunt for about 20 sheds close to British cities while Asda and Tesco are opening so-called 'dark stores' - distribution centers which look like supermarkets on the inside but are closed to customers - across Britain.
Industrial developer Prologis has bought a significant number of such sites near large towns and cities, such as Milton Keynes in Britain and Hannover in Germany, to meet future demand, European president Philip Dunne told Reuters.
Retailers face obsolescence unless they recognize how the type of property they rent needs to change, Gariel said.
"We are on the first page of the story regarding new ways to distribute goods. What happens if retailers do not recognize it? Just look at what happened to the fax and the telegram.

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Home prices rose in ninth straight month: S&P

Single-family home prices rose in October for nine months in a row, reinforcing the view the domestic real estate market is improving and should bolster the economy in 2013, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, stronger than the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
"Looking over this report, and considering other data on housing starts and sales, it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said in a statement.
While record low mortgage rates and modest job growth should keep the housing recovery on track, analysts cautioned home prices face downward pressure from a likely pickup in the sales of foreclosed and distressed properties and reduced buying investors and speculators.
Prices in the 20 cities rose 4.3 percent year over year, beating expectations for a rise of 4.0 percent.
Las Vegas posted the biggest monthly rise on a seasonally adjusted basis at 2.4 percent, followed by a 1.7 percent increase in San Diego, the latest Case-Shiller data showed.
"Higher year-over-year price gains plus strong performances in the Southwest and California, regions that suffered during the housing bust, confirm that housing is now contributing to the economy," Blitzer said.
Housing contributed 10 percent to the overall U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, while the sector represented less than 3 percent of gross domestic product, he said.
Last week, the government said U.S. GDP expanded at a stronger-than-expected 3.1 percent annualized pace in the third quarter.
Excluding seasonal factors, however, home prices in 12 of the 20 cities fell in October from September as home values tend to decline in fall and winter, Blitzer said.
Chicago experienced the largest non-seasonally adjusted decline at 1.5 percent, followed by a 1.4 percent fall in Boston.

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