Auto industry posts best U.S. sales year since 2007

U.S. auto sales rose 9 percent in December, led by foreign manufacturers, capping off the best year for the industry since before the recession.
The year's sales were driven by a slowly recovering economy, more available credit and the need for consumers and businesses to replace aging cars and trucks.
General Motors Co posted December U.S. sales growth of 5 percent compared with the year-earlier month, Ford Motor Co increased sales 2 percent and Chrysler Group LLC's sales rose 10 percent.
Wall Street cheered the results, sending GM and Ford stock to their highest levels since July 2011. GM shares ended 2.4 percent higher at $29.82 and Ford shares were up 2 percent to end at $13.46 on Thursday.
Research and consulting firm Polk said it expects U.S. auto sales to hit 15.3 million vehicles in 2013. GM and Ford both predicted industry sales of more than 15 million vehicles, but Toyota Motor Corp offered a more modest forecast of 14.7 million vehicles.
For the year just ended, U.S. auto sales rose 13.5 percent to nearly 14.5 million new vehicles, the best performance since 2007, according to Reuters calculations.
In the decade prior to 2008 when the recession slowed the industry, U.S. auto sales averaged nearly 17 million vehicles a year.
While last month's auto sales showed little impact of jitters caused by the so-called fiscal cliff - which proved largely averted - automakers expressed worry over the fog of uncertainty still emanating from Washington.
The impact of a payroll tax increase that took effect at the start of the year and the upcoming congressional debate over raising the U.S. debt ceiling may keep some consumers out of the market in 2013, several automakers said.
"It would have been nice if all the open questions had been resolved in the 'fiscal cliff' discussion over the holiday, but clearly they weren't, and that does extend this period of uncertainty from a consumer point of view," Jonathan Browning, head of Volkswagen AG's American unit, told reporters on a conference call.
A 2 percentage-point payroll tax increase will take about $1,000 from the average household budget, said Ford economist Ellen Hughes-Cromwick.
"It is something that we're looking at very carefully, as it will crimp the consumer spending scene somewhat in the months ahead," said Hughes-Cromwick.
Jesse Toprak, analyst with TrueCar.com, said the hit to households would be about the same amount as a down payment on a new vehicle.
"The cheap financing and improved income will make up for that, but that's something we're going to have a keep an eye on," he said.
Hughes-Cromwick said the tax increases for the wealthiest Americans will not greatly affect auto sales, because they tend to purchase new vehicles even if taxes change.
Tom Libby, an analyst at Polk, said continued low interest rates along with an improved housing sector and new product offerings from major automakers will make 2013 a bullish year for the industry.
Detroit's automakers showed December U.S. sales gains of 5 percent, slightly better than analysts' expectations, but not enough to stave off market-share gains by Toyota and Honda Motor Co Ltd .
The two largest Japanese automakers in the U.S. market rebounded from poor showings in 2011 when their inventory was constrained after the Japan earthquake and tsunami.
Toyota reported a 9 percent U.S. sales increase for December, which met analysts' expectations. Honda's December sales rose 26 percent but fell short of analysts' expectations. Honda sales are up 24 percent on the year.
Toyota's 2012 U.S. sales rose about 27 percent, compared with gains of 3.7 percent for GM, 4.7 percent for Ford, and 21 percent for Chrysler.
U.S. MARKET SHARE
GM's U.S. market share is now at its lowest level since at least 1960, and probably at a low not seen since 1930, according to industry journal Ward's Auto.
GM and Ford lost market share in 2012, dented by competition from Toyota and Honda which recovered from 2011 earthquake-related setbacks.
GM's 2012 market share fell to 17.9 percent from 19.6 percent in 2011. Its market share was 23.5 percent in 2007, before the recession. Ford's 2012 market share fell to 15.5 percent from 16.8 percent in 2011.
"We're always concerned about market share - always," said Mark Reuss, GM chief in North America. "But we're not going to give it away like we did in the past and burn the residuals and the brand values in anticipation of the biggest product portfolio launch that we've had in history."
Reuss referred to the years before GM's 2009 bankruptcy and taxpayer bailout, when vehicle production outpaced demand and it layered on incentives to lower prices for consumers.
The F-Series pickup truck from Ford, the top-selling vehicle in North America for more than three decades, had its best sales month in December since August 2007.
The F-Series remained the best-selling vehicle in the United States, with annual sales of 645,316, followed again by the full-size Chevrolet Silverado pickup, at 418,312.
BMW WINS LUXURY CROWN
Most luxury brands had a good year. BMW for the second straight year edged German rival Mercedes-Benz for the U.S. sales crown, followed by Toyota's Lexus and Honda's Acura.
The two U.S. luxury brands both saw sales fall in 2012, with Cadillac down 1.7 percent and Lincoln off 4.1 percent.
Japanese models swept the next four places, with Toyota Camry leading the Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Altima. Chrysler's Ram pickup placed seventh, followed by Toyota Corolla, Ford Escape and Ford Focus.
Both GM and Ford went into the recession that began in late 2007 - and into 2008 when gasoline prices spiked - overladen with low-mileage big pickup trucks and SUVs.
GM said on Thursday that in 2012 it sold in the U.S. market more than 1 million vehicles that get at least 30 miles per gallon in highway driving. And Ford said that in the year it sold the most small cars since 2001.
Sales of high-profile hybrid and electric vehicles were a mixed bag in 2012. GM's Chevrolet Volt tripled sales to 23,461, but still fell well short of the company's original goal of 40,000 vehicles. Nissan's Leaf was virtually flat, at 9,819.
Toyota maintained its lead in the green-car category, with total Prius sales of 236,659, up 73 percent with the addition of three new Prius derivatives in the past year.
Chrysler easily beat analysts' expectations and had its 33rd consecutive month of year-on-year sales gains. Its annual sales rose 21 percent. Its market share in 2012 rose to 11.4 percent from 10.7 percent in 2011. Chrysler is majority-owned by Italian automaker Fiat SpA .
Sales for South Korea's Hyundai Motor Corp and Kia Motors Co rose 5 percent. Hyundai, the larger of the sister companies, reported full-year U.S. sales of 703,007 vehicles, a company record.
Volkswagen reported a monthly increase of 31.5 percent for its namesake brand and luxury brands Audi and Porsche and a 30 percent gain for the full year.
December sales fell 12 percent for Lincoln, Ford's luxury brand.
Aided heavily by consumer incentives that reduce the price of the vehicles, GM in December dramatically trimmed its inventory of full-size pickup trucks to 80 days of supply from 139 days at the end of November. Most automakers like to have about 80 days of supply of these pickup trucks.
For the overall industry, the pace of annual sales increases has been in the double digits since the market bottomed in 2009, when it hit the worst annual sales rate since World War Two, adjusting for population.

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Economy, year-end sales help auto industry in 2012

DETROIT (AP) — A steadily improving economy and strong December sales lifted the American auto industry to its best performance in five years in 2012, especially for Volkswagen and Japanese-brand vehicles, and experts say the next year should be even better.
Carmakers on Thursday announced their final figures, which totaled 14.5 million — 13 percent better than 2011.
More than three years after the federal government's $62 billion auto-industry bailout, Americans had plenty of incentive to buy new cars and trucks in the year just ended.
Unemployment eased. Home sales and prices rose. And the average age of a car topped 11 years in the U.S., a record that spurred people to trade in old vehicles. Banks made that easier by offering low interest rates and greater access to loans, even for buyers with lousy credit.
"The U.S. light vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for LMC Automotive, a Detroit-area industry forecasting firm.
Sales were far better than the bleak days after the U.S. economy tanked and GM and Chrysler sought bankruptcy protection. Back then, sales fell to a 30-year low of 10.4 million, and they are still far short of the recent peak of around 17 million set in 2005.
The best part of 2012 came at the end, when special deals on pickup trucks and the usual round of sparkling holiday ads helped December sales jump 9 percent to more than 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. That translates to an annual rate of 15.4 million, making December the strongest month of the year.
Volkswagen led all major automakers with sales up a staggering 35 percent, led by the redesigned Passat midsize sedan. VW sold more than five times as many Passats last year as it did in 2011.
Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends for TrueCar, said VW has the right mix of value and attractive vehicles and called the company "the force to watch in the next several years in the U.S. market."
Toyota, which has recovered from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that crimped its factories two years ago, saw sales jump 27 percent for 2012. December sales were up 9 percent. Unlike 2011, the company had plenty of new cars on dealer lots for most of last year.
Honda sales rose 24 percent for the year. Nissan and Infiniti sales were up nearly 10 percent as the Nissan brand topped 1 million in annual sales for the first time. Hyundai sales rose 9 percent for the year to just over 703,000, the Korean automaker's best year in the U.S.
Chrysler, the smallest of the Detroit carmakers, had the best year among U.S. companies. Its sales jumped 21 percent for the year and 10 percent in December. Demand was led by the Jeep Grand Cherokee SUV, Ram pickup and Chrysler 300 luxury sedan.
But full-year sales at Ford and General Motors lagged. Ford edged up 5 percent and GM rose only 3.7 percent for the year. For December, Ford was up 2 percent and GM up 5 percent.
GM executives said the company has the oldest model lineup in the industry, yet it still posted a sales increase and commanded high prices for cars and trucks. The company plans to refurbish 70 percent of its North American models in the next 18 months and expects to boost sales this year.
North American President Mark Reuss said the company won't give away cars and trucks with discounts like it has in the past, especially in the midst of its biggest product update ever.
"Give us 18 months and you're going to see the whole portfolio turned," Reuss said.
Even though the congressional deal to avoid the fiscal cliff deal raised tax rates on the wealthiest Americans, Ford said it doesn't see a huge impact on auto sales.
Its chief economist, Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, said only 2 percent of new-vehicle buyers have income in that upper tax bracket, and they tend to purchase even if there is a change in after-tax income.
She said Ford is more concerned about an increase in the payroll tax, which is scheduled to climb to 6.2 percent this year from 4.2 percent in 2011 and 2012. That amounts to a $1,000 to $1,500 tax increase per household, she said.
"We will look at that closely because it will crimp spending in the months ahead," she said.
December featured year-end deals on GM's big pickup trucks. The company offered discounts up to $9,000 to help clear growing inventory, and it worked. GM cut its full-size pickup supply by more than 20,000 in December to about 222,000.
Overall, though, analysts said the industry eased up on promotions such as rebates and low-interest financing. Car and truck buyers paid an average of $31,228 per vehicle last month, up 1.8 percent from December 2011.
The Polk auto research firm predicted even stronger U.S. sales for 2013, forecasting 15.3 million vehicle sales as the economy continues to improve. Polk, based in Southfield, Mich., expects 43 new models to be introduced, up 50 percent from last year. New models usually boost sales.
The firm also predicts a rebound in sales of large pickups and midsize cars. All eight of the top manufacturers are introducing new vehicles, and that should bring competition and lower prices in those segments, according to Tom Libby, lead North American analyst for Polk.
But the firm's optimistic forecasts hinge on Washington reaching an agreement on government debt limits and spending cuts.

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Fracking can be done safely in New York state: dept report

The natural gas drilling process known as fracking would not be a danger to public health in New York state so long as proper safeguards were put into place, according to a health department report that environmentalists fear could help lift a moratorium on the controversial technique.
Governor Andrew Cuomo is weighing the economic benefits of hydraulic fracturing - commonly known as fracking - against the environmental risks from a technology that could unlock a vast domestic energy supply but also one that environmentalists say pollutes groundwater and the air.
Potential hazards could be avoided by implementing precautions the state has identified, according to a February 2012 preliminary assessment from the New York State Department of Health that became widely reported in the media on Thursday.
"Significant adverse impacts on human health are not expected from routine HVHF," or high volume hydraulic fracturing, the document concluded.
Natural gas drilling in New York state could create $11.4 billion in economic output and raise $1.4 billion in state and local tax revenue, according to a July 2011 report from the Manhattan Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank.
Fracking is the process of releasing natural gas and oil from rock deposits deep underground by fracturing shale formations with chemical-laced water and sand.
The release of the document came as Cuomo's government continued to deliberate whether to overturn a 4-year-old moratorium on fracking originally put in place to assess the effects of the drilling process.
The Department of Environmental Conservation is the lead agency studying fracking, with contributions from other departments such as health.
In late November, the Department of Environmental Conservation was granted a 90-day extension to its original deadline for completing a draft of fracking regulations in order for its environmental impact study to be reviewed by the state health commissioner and outside health experts.
Since the preliminary assessment was put together nearly a year ago, was incomplete, and did not reflect the input of these experts, it does not reflect the final policy of the Department of Environmental Conservation, spokeswoman Emily DeSantis said in an email.
"I sincerely hope that this is not where the administration is going with the health review," said Katherine Nadeau of Environmental Advocates, a group concerned over the state's plans for fracking.
"It is nothing more than a justification for not doing a health review and a defense for the plans and proposals they've already put out there," said Nadeau, who had reviewed the document.
The Independent Oil and Gas Association of New York, which represents oil and gas producers in the state, called on the Cuomo administration to lift the moratorium because the experience of other states has shown that fracking could be done in a way that protects the environment and public health.
"All ongoing environmental reviews, including New York's health assessment, will make similar conclusions," Brad Gill, the group's executive director, said in an emailed statement.
The precautions the health department document proposed for the state to put into place were of varying specificity. For example, the transport of drilling water that flows back out of wells after fracking should be subject to similar requirements to the treatment of medical waste.

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IMF's economist: budget cuts may hurt growth less now

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Belt-tightening in advanced economies may not be as harmful to growth now as it was during the height of the financial crisis, but governments should still be careful about drastic cuts, an International Monetary Fund research paper found on Thursday.
The IMF came under heavy criticism in October when it conceded that austerity programs it recommended during the global economic crisis were more costly than expected, causing economic damage that was as much as triple the amount forecast.
In a follow-up paper by the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, and his colleague, Daniel Leigh, stood by their initial conclusions but said the harshest impact of those programs may be fading as economies start to recover.
The paper in October fueled critics of steep budget cuts in debt-burdened European economies, and prompted the IMF to soften its own recommendations for austerity in the euro zone crisis.
It said that now it believed forcing Greece and other debt-burdened countries to reduce their deficits too quickly would be counterproductive.
"For example, in Portugal, we have relaxed fiscal deficit targets," said Blanchard, the IMF chief economist.
But Germany said at the time that back-tracking on debt-reduction goals would only hurt market confidence.
Some economists also questioned the methodology the IMF had used in its initial research, saying the findings may have been exaggerated, or only applied to certain countries or times.
In the follow-up paper on Thursday, Blanchard and Leight said their research held-up for most advanced economies during the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10. While their views do not represent those of the Fund, the chief economist has a heavy hand in shaping the IMF's economic thinking.
"Forecasters have underestimated fiscal multipliers, that is, the short-term effects of government spending cuts or tax hikes on economic activity," the paper wrote.
The paper found that every dollar of deficit reduction subtracted "substantially" more than a dollar from economic growth, as much at $1.70. Economists had previously estimated that a dollar in government cuts would drain only 50 cents from the economy.
But during the past two years, the negative effect of government cuts on growth may have shrunk as the economy improved and people and businesses were able to borrow more money, making government spending less crucial, the researchers found.
"A decline in actual multipliers ... could reflect an easing of credit constraints faced by firms and households, and less economic slack in a number of economies relative to 2009-10," the paper said.
Blanchard and Leigh said the effect of government spending on the economy could vary depending on the country and the state of the economy. They cautioned that governments should not necessarily delay austerity, but should take into account its negative impact on growth.

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Purported photo of new BlackBerry phone with QWERTY keyboard leaks

Research In Motion (RIMM) CEO Thorsten Heins recently said during the company’s Q3 earnings call that BlackBerry 7 is still a “strong success” in the Asian-Pacific markets. Despite the company putting most of its weight behind BlackBerry 10 and the Z10 and X10, Heins said RIM will continue supporting BB7 and consumers “might expect us to even build one of the other new products” based on it. Heins suggested on the earnings call new BB7 phones will target entry-level markets with lower price points over its BB10 devices; now, MobileSyrup has posted a photo of a mystery BlackBerry phone sitting next to the BB10-powered Z10 and X10. Could this HTC (2498) Status/ChaCha look-alike be a new BB7 smartphone? It could be, but then again, it could also be a prototype that will never be released or another new BB10-powered QWERTY phone.

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Microsoft Surface trampled at the bottom of the tablet pile this Christmas

While it does have drawbacks just like anything else, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Surface is a great slate for those looking for a fresh new take on the modern tablet. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like very many people were looking for a fresh new take on the modern tablet this holiday season. In a recent note to investors, R.W. Baird analyst William Power recounted recent conversations had at retailers including Best Buy (BBY) and Staples (SPLS). While speaking with sales reps at the stores, Apple’s (AAPL) iPad was the most highly recommended tablet while Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle Fire line and Samsung’s (005930) Galaxy Tab line were both recommended as alternatives. Microsoft’s Surface tablet, on the other hand, was not pushed by reps at either chain.

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iPad is a Christmas graveyard for ‘Grand Theft Auto’ and ‘Modern Combat’

At the beginning of December, the traditional video game industry attempted another iPad invasion. New versions of “Grand Theft Auto,” “Modern Combat” and “Baldur’s Gate” hit the iOS app market priced between $5 and $10. Over the past years, we have seen repeated attempts by major console and PC industry franchises to tailor their blockbuster games for iPhone and iPad platforms. None have succeeded. As the iOS app market increasingly favors free games with in-app purchases, the old-timers have started failing spectacularly.
[More from BGR: Microsoft Surface trampled at the bottom of the tablet pile this Christmas]
December is the most important month of the year for the iOS app market and the days around Christmas are the hottest period. As consumers upgrade their iPhones or receive their very first iOS devices, they tend to go on mobile app buying binges. That is why mega franchises like GTA and “Modern Combat” launched their latest iOS products at the beginning of the month. The games were supposed to stay alive for at least three weeks. They did not.
[More from BGR: Mark Cuban: Nokia Lumia 920 ‘crushes’ the iPhone 5]
The lavishly marketed “Grand Theft Auto: Vice City” peaked on iPhone app chart at No.2 on December 8th and plunged to No.36 by December 22nd. It rebounded to No.25 on December 25th. On the iPad, the game plummeted to a shocking No.52 by the all-important Christmas Day, when new iPad owners go berserk on iTunes.
Here is the kicker: on the revenue chart for U.S. iPad apps, the new GTA game had tanked to No.75 by December 25th. This is even worse than the No.52 position on the download chart. I find that genuinely fascinating, because it means that a game with a very stiff download price of $5 is showing weaker revenue performance than on raw download volume.
The GTA title is priced at $5 at a time when 80% of the top-grossing iPad games are free downloads. The top free apps have compelling in-game purchase strategies — “Grand Theft Auto: Vice City” does not. As a result, it is getting beaten by titles such as “Fairway Solitaire” and “My Little Pony” in revenue generation. Having massive name recognition and hundreds of millions of units in console game sales helps very little in the brutally competitive iOS game market.
“Modern Combat 4″ has also plunged out of top-50 on the iPad revenue chart just three weeks after its high-profile debut. The $10 update of “Baldur’s Gate” is out of top-200, brought low by its ridiculously high sticker price.
The proud console and PC game champions keep repeating the same gambit in the iOS market: price ‘em high and ignore the in-app purchase angle. They keep failing. When are we going to see a major console game franchise finally adapt to the Apple (AAPL) ecosystem and create an iOS game that is free to download but lures users into an in-app purchase trap effectively?

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